NASCAR Würth 400 best bets from Dover Motor Speedway

Coming off a superspeedway race at Talladega, NASCAR transitions to Dover Motor Speedway Sunday for the running of the Würth 400. Find out my best bets below for the race from FanDuel.

Ross Chastain was last year’s runner up in this race. He led 98 laps and won a stage in one of his best outings of the season. Two years ago he finished third after leading 86 laps.

Despite being 11th in points, Chastain has just one top five (Las Vegas) and four top tens (None in his last four races). Chevrolet has always been dominant at Dover, and now is a great time to buy low on Chastain having a strong run.

While these odds aren’t as nice as Chastain’s top five finish from a potential payout perspective, Ryan Blaney is the only Ford driver I have confidence in to be a contender to win on a weekly basis.

The reigning cup champion finished third here last year and has placed top 15 in all but two races dating back to the 2018 season. Like Chastain, this is a good time to bet on Blaney bouncing back after just one top ten in his last five races.

Trying to predict two of the top five finishers is certainly risky, but that risk is somewhat relieved by William Byron being the most consistent and arguably best driver since the next gen era began.

Byron has five straight top tens across a variety of tracks. While that could suggest regression incoming to some, I look at his excellence at mile or 1.5 mile tracks the last couple seasons and him leading almost 200 laps last year as a sign he can be trusted as much as anyone to finish top five here.

2024 has been dominated by Chevrolet and Toyota, who each have six and four wins, respectively. Ford doesn’t feel like a threat at races other than superspeedways and road courses, leaving Chevrolet as the main threat to this bet.

I have two drivers from Chevrolet finishing top five, but I think a Toyota driver will win this race. Last week’s winner Tyler Reddick is a threat on every type of track, as are all four Joe Gibbs cars.

In particular, Martin Truex Jr. (+650) is the name I’m watching most. Dover is arguably his best track with four wins in his career. If you’re not comfortable picking him to back-to-back, Christopher Bell (+1000) is due for a big race and I remain confident Ty Gibbs’ (+1600) first win will come this year.

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